Market Analysis
 

This page is updated at the first of every month and presents data and information on the current state of the real estate market in Halifax, Dartmouth, Cole Harbour, Bedford, and surrounding areas. You can scroll down to find older entries. If you would like more detailed analysis on a specific area, please contact me directly. You can also subscribe to the LiveWellHRM.ca Market Analysis newsletter by clicking on the box below.

 
July 1, 2009
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis
 

Follow sound business trends, not fashion trends. 

                  Janice Dickinson

Good advice from the 80s supermodel. 

It is the season of new styles and changing tastes, the season that celebrates the novel and the fleeting. But in this period of the ephemeral, the lasting still holds prominence. Certain trends are more than just that. So forget in-seems and waistlines, the line of best fit we’re concerned with pertains to real estate – the trend is up!

It has been a while since the last update – my apologies. Activity has picked up quite a bit and I genuinely put a lot of time into this newsletter, so recently I just have not had that time. So, to backtrack a bit…

You likely have noticed a lot more signs around your neighbourhood lately – and, you probably have seen a lot more ‘SOLD’ signs as well. This is the time of year that the home down the street that seemed as though it had been on the market forever finally sells. The buyers are out and hoping to move before the fall. For this reason, April (as it usually does) signaled a turning point in the market. It was a very slow winter (even by usual standards), but once again the strength of the Nova Scotia market it becoming evident. The volume of sales (#) is still down as compared to the record setting early 2008 numbers, but the average price of homes sold in Nova Scotia for April was actually a record high!! This average ($206,668) was up 5.4% from April of last year. In contrast, the national average dropped 3.2% - so as I’ve been saying for months now: “Our market is still strong – AND GROWING!” In fact, the Halifax-Dartmouth region bettered the provincial increase as prices rose by 6% as compared to the same time last year! So next time you hear someone question the market, you can tell them otherwise!

Moving forward to June, the upward trend has continued. Less people have put their home on the market as compared to 2008, most likely made cautious by the rumours they’ve been hearing. However, those that have decided to sell are definitely reaping the benefits. The average price of sold homes for the month of June 2009 was approximately $206,000. Last year, the average was approximately $188,000. That’s an increase of over 9%! In fact, with the exception of Fairview (which essentially saw no change), every region of the HRM saw an increase in average price of homes sold as compared to June 2008.

Real Estate Market                    Ave Price June 2009        Inc/Dec Price of Homes (%)

HALIFAX

Central Halifax                                 $280,000                                  1.10 *
South Halifax                                   $600,833                                16.37
North Halifax                                    $266,929                                 6.38
West Halifax                                    $308,225                                 8.88
Fairmnt, Clay.Prk, Rockingham         $317,040                                  9.53
Fairview                                           $190,250                                 -0.78 *
Spryfield                                          $214,518                                24.36
Armdale, Purc. Cove, Herr. Cove        $308,704                                  4.98
Harietsfield, Sambro, Halibut Bay       $197,800                                11.13

DARTMOUTH

Downtown Dartmouth to Burnside      $236,857                                12.21
Woodside, East. Pass., Cow Bay     $173,136                                  9.58
Southdale, Manor Park                     $209,875                                 2.05
Chricton Park, Albro Lake                 $233,782                                15.30
Montebellow, Keystone, Port Wallis   $259,200                                 5.67

COLE HARBOUR

Forest Hills                                      $202,198                                 9.69
Colby Area                                      $228,645                                  5.19
Woodln, Portland Est, Nantucket      $246,934                                  6.27

BEDFORD and Surrounding Areas

Bedford                                            $320,256                                 7.36
Kingswd, Hal. Hills, Hamds. Plains    $299,183                                  2.57
Sackville                                          $199,022                                10.07
Beaver Bank, Upper Sackville            $239,893                                10.16
Waverly, Fall River, Oakfield              $317,863                                  5.49

* less than 5 units sold

So with all this, you can see that if you're thinking of selling, this is a great time to do so. There is a lot of activity, so get in touch with me TODAY! Or, just fill out this form and I’ll tell you what your home is worth!

But Buyers, don't fret. Mortgage rates have gone up a touch, but mortgages are still very cheap as compared to historical rates. And as you can see, real estate is an investment that DOES yield returns. The trend is up, so get in now! If you'd like me to find you a place, simply complete this form.

That’s all for now. But just a reminder: As busy as things are, I’m NEVER too busy to help you or your referrals. So please, call me any time.

As always, if you have any questions or would like more detail on a specific area, please let me know.

All the best,

T. Chandler Haliburton
209-3375
Chandler-Haliburton@ColdwellBanker.ca
 

March 1, 2009
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis

Sound the Flute!
Now it's mute.
Birds delight
Day and Night
Nightingale
In the dale
Lark in Sky
Merrily
Merrily Merrily to welcome in the Year

                   William Blake – ‘Spring’

This month, I make no apologies for the lateness of my newsletter! I have been too busy, and in this business, that is a GREAT THING!! To quote Blake twice: “The busy bee has no time for sorrow”.

Buyers are the true ushers of the new Spring, and they have awoken from their slumber to take advantage of the best rates of this generation. Bank of Canada Interest rates are down almost 3% from this time last year, and prime has hit 2.5%. You’d be amazed how many people have come to me saying, “I just realized that mortgage payments would be the same or less than we’re paying for rent!” That angle has been worked by REALTORS® for years, but never has it been more true. If you’d like to know more, throw 4.5%, 35 years, and financing of $150,000 into my mortgage calculator. Not too bad, eh? Better yet, talk to a mortgage professional. 

Put simply, it is a FANTASTIC TIME TO BE A BUYER.

But does that mean it is a bad time to be a Seller? NO! Believe it or not, the two are not contradictory. A Buyer getting a great deal on financing does not have any affect on Sellers. Nor does it affect housing prices. I’ve been saying this for a few months now, but it needs to be said again: PRICES ARE NOT COMING DOWN IN THE HRM.

CREA just released their MLS statistics for January. Here is what they found in major cities:

City                         January 2008                  January 2009
Halifax                         $218,505                           $242,861
Montreal                      $247,013                           $252,450
Ottawa                        $285,736                           $290,930
Toronto                        $374,449                           $343,632
Hamilton/Burglington     $278,189                           $264,549
Winnipeg                     $174,902                           $183,873
Saskatoon                   $259,444                           $278,545
Calgary                       $408,672                            $362,143
Edmonton                   $352,051                            $317,049
Vancouver                   $588,183                            $536,162
 

What do we observe? Well, the first thing of note is that Halifax prices are up over 11% as compared to January 2008. But in Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver prices are down between 8% and 11%. And where do we get our most influential news reports from? Exactly. I cannot tell you how frustrating it is to hear the doom and gloom propaganda when everyone in the industry knows there is no such collapse occurring here.

That said, what IS happening is that homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers are hesitant not only because of what they’re hearing about the real estate market, but also because they have genuine concerns regarding the Canadian economy as a whole. As a result, they’re moving cautiously and being very selective. Sellers need to ensure their home is being effectively marketed. There are also a few other strategies they can employ. However, if you’re thinking of Selling, this is the time of year to list. There is a lot of activity, so get in touch with me TODAY! Or, just fill out this form and I’ll tell you what your home is worth!

That’s all for now. But just a reminder: As busy as things are, I’m NEVER too busy to help you or your referrals. So please, call me any time.

As always, if you have any questions or would like more detail on a specific area, please let me know.

T.Chandler Haliburton
209-3375
Chandler-Haliburton@ColdwellBanker.ca
 

February 1, 2009
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis
 

“Real Estate Remains Solid Investment”

There is much to talk about since the last entry. Again, apologies for this being a couple days late, but I wanted to pull together the best information I could. 

The above statement seems like a good place to start. It was the heading of the The Chronicle Herald’s “Nova Scotia Business Review and Forecast ‘09” special issue on Real Estate, Construction, & Renovation (Friday, Jan. 30, 09). While the newspaper insert as a whole is primarily devoted to advertising, there are some good articles on everything from green design to family financing. The whole report is available online through The Chronicle Herald Archive. The afore mentioned article references a representative from the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS® who forecasts a 2.2 per cent dip in market activity in 2009. However, like I’ve been saying for months, prices are still heading up. In fact, I feel I’ve been plagiarized: a later article included the subheading “Sky not falling on Nova Scotia real estate market” – which, unoriginal though it may be, echoes my sentiments from last months update.

Several other articles focus on the rejuvenation of different areas in downtown Halifax as well as major condo projects such as Amoury Square and The Trillium – things very near and dear to my heart. Again, everything is available through The Chronicle Herald website.

This month, in lieu of a full break down of trends by area, I have decided to focus on the other real estate news making headlines. The first obviously is the declining mortgage rates which are hitting freakish lows. The best I’ve heard so far is a 3.75% on a 3 year fixed. INCREDIBLE. If you can’t fully appreciate how great that is, consider this: the highest mortgage rate in the last 30 years was over 18%! The average rate over the past 25 years is just over 10%. What’s more, there is even speculation that rates may continue to drop. I cannot overstate how incredible this is for Buyers.

In other news, you may have heard about recent changes to the Federal Home Buyers Plan. Through this plan, first time home buyers can use their RRSPs toward the purchase of a home without penalty. The maximum they could use was $20,000. Now that figure has been raised to $25,000. It’s not a great change because how many first time buyers have $25k in RRSPs, but it is still worth noting.

More substantial, however, is the new tax rebate being offered to first time buyers. If they qualify, new buyers will receive a $5000 rebate for next year. Again, it’s not huge, but when the $750 arrives in the mail next year, you’ll appreciate it.

Finally, if you’re looking to renovate in the next 12 months, you’re eligible for a rebate as well. Depending on the renovation, your rebate (min $1,000 and max $10,000) could result in up to $1500 back to you. Since many buyers are looking for ‘fixer-uppers’ that is also great news.

**NOTE: If you’re looking for information on using your RRSPs to make a home purchase – or if you’re curious about buying without a deposit – keep checking the Buying page. That information is coming.

Since this month’s update was a bit different than usual, you may have questions about particular areas. As always, please feel free to contact me.

All the best,

T. Chandler Haliburton
209-3375
Chandler-Haliburton@ColdwellBanker.ca
 

January 1, 2009
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis

'What is, and what is to come...'

After a brief slowdown in the number of new listings in November, Sellers began to put their homes back on the market in December. The number of new listings in Nova Scotia last month (799) is up 18% as compared to the same time last year. However, once again the number of sales was down a staggering 32%. These figures are fairly consistent with those since the economic slowdown of late summer. What does that mean for Buyers? Well, it means first and foremost that they have a lot of choice. There is a surplus of homes for sale right now and that will likely continue for January and February. But the most important question is always price. So…

Are prices dropping? Intuitively, one might expect they are. Major media outlets are definitely promoting that notion. However, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has recently suggested the figures are being skewed by major cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, and Vancouver. These cities all experienced booms of absurd proportions since 2000. Simple economics predicts that any boom of that nature is going to eventually be followed by a pullback. What we’re witnessing right now is that pullback in combination with the effects of the slowing economy. It is also worth noting that those regions – being heavily linked to the American economy – are especially vulnerable. The large drop in housing sales and prices in those major cities is bringing the overall national averages down. Using a weighted national average price for sales, CREA found that prices were actually down only an average of 4.7% across the country as oppose to 9.8% using un-weighted data. That is still a decrease of nearly 5%, but what is happening here in Nova Scotia? Well, even though the number of houses sold was down in December, those that did sell went for an average price of $179,606 as compared to $164,256 a year ago. That’s actually an increase of over 9%. But if you’re on this site, you’re likely most interested in the HRM. So…

Are prices dropping in the HRM? As suggested by the overall figure for the province, the answer is: “no”. The data supports this. The average price of homes sold in the HRM this December was $260,018. A year ago this figure was $241,882. This is an increase of almost 7.5%. So for those waiting for the sky to fall, it’s not happening.

What is to come? In CREA's first quarter forecase completed last year (2008), they predicted the number of sales in 2009 to be lower than past years. However, across all provinces, they actually indicated a continued rise in price. The difference, the say, will be that “price gains will be smaller than in recent years” (You may want to look at CREA's most recent news release here, and their full set of predictions from last year here). Even though their predictions came before the full brunt of the economic breakdown was felt, they still are worth noting. For Nova Scotia, they expected the number of sales to fall 4.7% as compared to the levels of 2008. Conversely, they expected prices to rise by 3.9%. As I've outlined above, those figures still seem very possible. Everyone is eagerly anticipating their forthcoming predictions and I will have them for you as soon as they are available.

As always, if you have any questions or would like more detail on a specific area, please let me know.

T. Chandler Haliburton
209-3375
Chandler-Haliburton@ColdwellBanker.ca
 

December 1, 2008
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis

Yea, I have looked, and seen November there;
The changeless seal of change it seemed to be,
Fair death of things that, living once, were fair;
Bright sign of loneliness too great for me,
Strange image of the dread eternity,
In whose void patience how can these have part,
These outstretched feverish hands, this restless heart?

-  William Morris, November

Many might echo the sentiments of Morris in describing the current state of the real estate market in Nova Scotia. True to form, November was indeed the 'changeless seal of change', confirming that the softening of the market observed over the last few months is not yet reversing. The number of sales was down 40% as compared to November of last year, but the average price of homes sold was up nearly 17%. Again, this can be attributed to the significant drop in sales of homes under $260,000. This drop is the result of two factors. First, Buyers in the market for such homes (predominantly first-time buyers) are hesitant to purchase given new financing constraints and the state of national economics. Second, climbing house prices mean that there simply are not many houses out there for sale under $260k. The latter is the bigger problem as far as Buyers are concerned. Homes that may have sold for $230k five years ago are now being listed above that $260k threshold.

From a Seller's perspective, more homes are selling above the $350,000 mark. Again, this is attributable to the increase in prices. Homes that may have sold for around $300k five years ago are now being listed at or above $350k. The problem is that supply is exceeding demand right now. Homes -when they DO sell - are still selling for a profit, even over just last year. However, they are taking longer to sell. The solution? A strong marketing plan and an understanding of the current conditions. No matter how bleak November may have been, many homes were still selling quickly. More than ever, proper pricing and ensuring your home is Buyer-friendly are necessary. To learn more about making your listing competitive, visit the 'Selling' Page, or contact me directly.

Sellers: For the first time in months, the number of new listings is down -a 16% decrease as compared to last November. This means you can beat the competition by listing before them. Remember, even though the number of sales are down, the average price of a sold home is up! Industry members are expecting two things to occur in the new year: 1) a rejuvenation of the market, 2) a plethora of new (or re-listed) houses on the market. If you're thinking of selling in the spring, the time to start planning is NOW!

Buyers: While everyone else is sleeping, it might be time to strike. Interest rates are as low as 4.35% at this time of my writing. There is an abundance of homes for sale, and often at this time of year Sellers are looking to unload. Visit the 'Buying' Page to read more, or contact me directly.

*** Special Report ***

Halifax Real Estate -Dartmouth Real Estate- Cole Harbour Real Estate - Bedford Real Estate - Surrounding Areas

This month, I have decided to provide a breakdown of various areas across the HRM. These findings are based on MLS® Statistics and indicate changes this year to date as compared to last year.

Highlights from the HRM Real Estate Market in 2008:

Halifax Real Estate - The number of sales has decreased in almost every region. Conversely, in Fairview, sales
figures have increased by nearly 76% this year to date as compared to 2007. However, the average price of a
sold home in Fairview has declined slightly. The prestigious south end of Halifax has also seen the number of
homes sold increase, by about 5%. Their prices have risen by over 16% this year to date as compared to last.
The largest increase in the average price per home, however, occurred in Spryfield - a staggering 24.36%
increase! This is attributable to the fact that homes in that region are some of the few that first time Buyers
can still afford. As a result, increased demand has driven their prices up.

Dartmouth Real Estate - Investors take note! Dartmouth is currently the most active market with every region
showing an increase in the number of sales. Prices are climbing as well, as high as 12+% in the downtown
Dartmouth to Burnside area. This is a very impressive stat and a sign that the long-awaiting downtown
rejuvenation in Dartmouth is beginning. That said, these results were bettered by Chricton Park and Albro
Lake where the number of sales was up over 11% and average prices were up over 15.30%.

Cole Harbour Real Estate - Figures from the home of Sidney Crosby are similar to those from Halifax. Forest Hills is
reporting the most growth, but this is primarily the result of new development. Overall the number of sales are
down, but average prices continue to climb.

Bedford Real Estate and Surrounding Areas – This area has shown some of the biggest drops in the number of sales,
especially in Beaver Bank and Upper Sackville. These figures are misleading however as in the past couple
years, growth was so rampant that this years results could not be expected to keep up. A promising sign for
home owners is that prices in those areas are up an average of over 10%. Though Bedford saw a significant
drop in the number of sales as well, it continues its strong price growth.

November 1, 2008
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis

The trends I observed last month are continuing as the number of listings as compared to October of 2007 is up (+10%). However, the total number of sales is down a staggering 26%. Again, this is a result of drops in consumer confidence and the changes to financing which especially restrict first time buyers. Here's the evidence: The number of sales for homes priced under $260,000 declined by 211 units in October as compared to last year. That decline alone accounts for over 85% of the overall drop in the number of sales (which was 247 units). Conversely, the number of sales for homes priced over $350,000 was up just slightly as compared to October of 2007. This is due in part to the continued appreciation of homes (discussed more below).

*It should also be mentioned that spec sales and new developments are also down this year and those numbers always have a huge effect on statistics.

Buyers: You're in an interesting position. It's a Buyer's Market: Interest rates are fantastic and there are numerous Sellers competing for your purchase. However, prices have been steadily rising, and with restricted financing and concerns over the economy, you may be struggling to take the plunge. While your financial situation may be hindering, real estate is still a very secure investment - in my opinion the most secure one you can make. As you will read in the Sellers address, prices are still rising. If you're beginning to think about purchasing - no matter how far in the future - please get in touch.

Sellers: Despite what you may have heard, you're still in fantastic shape. With all the above said regarding the decline in the number of sales, the 2008 figures are about the same (and in some cases even better) than those of 2006. So things are still pretty good. In fact, despite the decline, sales in HRM through three quarters remain at their second highest levels on record! And what is REALLY IMPORTANT is that PRICES are still going UP. Price growth remains steady at 6.7% for the year - not a bad return on investment. Also, while some listings are sitting on the market for some time, the average SOLD home is actually on the market for only 84 days. This is a strong figure that proves that well priced and well marketed homes are still selling quickly and for good money. As always, the real estate trend is upward. So if you want to list, please feel free to contact me.

Where's hot, where's not?

HOT:
Dartmouth City - specifically Cole Harbour (and predominantly Forest Hills) - is up in sales activity due to increased. development.
Sackville has seen average prices rise 13% (again due in large part to new development) through three quarters.
Central Halifax (West, South, North, Central, Fairmount, Clayton Park, Rockingham, Fairview, Spryfield, Armdale, Herring Cove, and Purcells Cove) has increased in price by 9.4% through three quarters.

NOT:
Sales have declined most in Fall River-Beaver Bank, Bedford-Hammonds Plains, and Halifax County East. However, prices are still doing very well and the decline in sales has more to do with slowing development of new homes.

As always, if you have any questions or would like more detail on a specific area, please let me know.

T. Chandler Haliburton
209-3375
Chandler-Haliburton@ColdwellBanker.ca

October 1, 2008
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis

September 1, 2008
HRM Real Estate Market Analysis

As you may already know, changes are coming with regards to mortgage financing.  As of October 15, 2008, 100% financing and 40 year amortizations will no longer be available as an insured mortgage product. All purchases will require a 5% down-payment, with a maximum amortization of 35 years. (For a $200,000 property for example, this means you now need to have $10,000 to put down when previously you needed nothing).

What this means to the consumer, especially first time home buyers and real estate investors, is that there is a limited amount of time left to take advantage of purchasing a property with a 0% down option and a minimized monthly payment. In fact, there are only a few lenders who still offer these products as some have withdrawn the 100% financing option prior to the October 15 date. Does this mean you should rush out and buy now? Not necessarily of course. However, if you are already thinking of buying and wanted 100% financing, you are now facing a bit of a deadline.

If you have any questions related to this topic or mortgages in general, please don't hesitate to send me a message.

All the best,

Talk soon.

T. Chandler Haliburton
209-3375
Chandler-Haliburton@ColdwellBanker.ca